MACRO & TAXES
Joe Lieber [202-756-7704] and Saad Kamal (202-756-7718]
We view a stimulus package as the key macro driver in Q1, though it will have to compete with a host of President Joe Biden’s nominee confirmations as well as a second impeachment trial of President Trump. We think the odds slightly favor Biden getting his package through on a bipartisan basis. A bipartisan package would likely be ~$1 trillion in size and include: 1) ~$1,000 checks for individuals; 2) $300-400/week in enhanced unemployment benefits, though this money is more likely to only last through July rather than September, as Biden is calling for; 3) ~$190 billion for small businesses; 4) state and local aid, though likely around half of the $350 billion Biden is calling for; and 5) most of his COVID funding, including funds for distribution, tracking and tracing, and the like.